You Should Know You're a Dumbassy, When...

(but they never do)...You play with statistics to argue Iraq is another Vietnam:

Battlefield deaths in Iraq are considerably lower than they were in Vietnam, but that's partly because recent medical improvements allow more soldiers with severe wounds to survive, and partly because there are fewer total soldiers in Iraq than in Vietnam. When you control for both these variables, how does Iraq compare?

There are fewer total soldiers in Iraq precisely because it is not another Vietnam. To "control for [that] variable" is either (if the person is smart enough, and technically qualified) an exercise in sophistry, or (and much more likely) a betrayal of your total ignorance of valid logical processes.

To wit, you're worthy of the award only given for remarks so dumb, so embarrassingly foolish, that a normal person--when it dawned on him what he had said--would apply for acceptance at the closest Trappist monastery.

The Academy nominates, for a Dumbassy--aka; a Drummie--in the category:

"Yes, if you ignore that there's no jungle to hide in, no superpower with nuclear weapons supplying the guerillas with arms, no safe haven in adjoining countries, no North Iraqi Regulars to invade and conquer, that American soldiers are not being killed in the hundreds per week, every week, no anti-aircraft missiles shooting down American fliers, no POW camps visited by silicone-brained Hollywood actresses, no John Kerry collaborating with Al Qaeda leaders in Paris to undermine American resolve, no draftees serving in the American military, no college students planning to meet their military obligations when their student deferments run out, no anti-war movement on the homefront (beyond a handful of dimwitted bloggers and movie stars), and that there is going to be an election for the first time ever in about a month, then yes, you could say Iraq is just like Vietnam":

The Sage of the Washington Monthly, the Political Animal himself, Kevin Drum.

DUMBASSY with Oak Leaf Cluster

George H.W. Bush, to Dan Rather in 1988:

How would you like it if I judged your career by those seven minutes when you walked off the set in New York?

I'm guessing that would sound pretty good to him about now.

It isn't often that the Academy gets to honor a veteran more than once in the same campaign. As noted, most people uttering the kind of humiliatingly ridiculous things required to merit a FLUBA DUMBASSY, immediately retreat into a privacy so complete they're not spotted for a year.

Not our one-time CBS AWOL (or was it 'deserter') wunderkind. No sirree, this guy's a trooper, racking up honors at a faster pace than Lt. John Kerry earned Purple Hearts in Vietnam (I hope he's not counting on a "threefer and you're out" exemption from combat).

Yes, it's another nomination. This time, in the category...Hey, hey, only one person at a time in these revolvvvving doooors...for last night's:

The questions raised by our report include:

--Did a wealthy Texas oilman-friend of the Bush family use his influence with the speaker of the Texas House of Representatives .. to get George W. Bush a coveted slot in the National Guard .. keeping him out of the draft and any probable service IN Vietnam?

--Did Lieutenant Bush refuse a direct order from his commanding officer?

--Was Lieutenant. Bush suspended for failure to perform up to standards?

--Did Lieutenant Bush ever take a physical he was required and ordered to take? If not, why not?

--And did Lieutenant Bush, in fact, complete his commitment to the Guard?

These questions grew out of new witnesses and new evidence -- including documents written by Lieutenant Bush's squadron commander. Today, on the internet and elsewhere, some people -- including many who are partisan political operatives -- concentrated not on the key questions the overall story raised but on the documents that were part of the support of the story.

Which is an almost textbook example of the fallacy of circular reasoning. Or, as Rush Limbaugh puts it, "It isn't the quality of the evidence that counts. It's the seriousness of the charges." Which is exactly what Rather is attempting; to make the charges themselves, the evidence.

But, it's a brave new world, Dan. In the New Media Age logic and evidence actually count for something. Wishful thinking and strongly emotional needs to believe, nothing.

The answer to the first four "questions" Rather is asking, is "no". And to the final one; yes, he did meet his obligations; that's why he got an honorable discharge on October 1, 1973. A discharge recommended by none other than Lt. Col. Jerry Killian on Sept. 6th of that year.

Bush didn't need any political help to get into the Guard because there were openings. The unit was 156 men understrength in mid 1968, as this Dallas Morning News article (courtesy of Beldar the Magnificent) made clear in 1999.

But, more importantly, Bush's goal wasn't to get into the National Guard at all. His goal was to become a fighter pilot. It just so happened that the Texas ANG was the best way to assure that would happen. He specifically signed up for a unit that flew F-102s. Which (Mr. Rather seems to unaware of) was a combat aircraft, and people qualified to fly it were qualified to engage in combat in Vietnam. Training for combat in 1968, at the peak of the hostilities for Americans in Vietnam, would be an astonishingly stupid way to insure oneself against getting sent to Vietnam.

Dan Rather, and similar intellects, are engaging in another textbook fallacy; post hoc, ergo propter hoc. They reason: Bush didn't go to Vietnam, thus it was because he deliberately got into a unit that couldn't be sent to Vietnam. Their syllogism would be:

Major Premise: Bush didn't go to Vietnam
Minor Premise: Bush served in the Air Nat'l Guard
Conclusion: Air Nat'l Guard Service was exempt from Vietnam

Which is not only invalid logic, but is factually incorrect. F-102s, flown by Texas ANG pilots were in Vietnam in 1968 (when Bush got into the ANG), as well as F-100s flown by ANG pilots. And. even if there weren't, there was no guarantee that the President couldn't order stateside units mobilized in the future (gee, has that ever happened?).

Further, Bush did volunteer to go to Vietnam. Twice, according the son of the man whose signature is forged unto three of the memos CBS is fraudulently representing as evidence.

The reason Bush didn't serve in Vietnam is that when he volunteered there were other pilots with more experience ahead of him (and his friend Fred Bradley who was also not accepted). That, and that by the time Bush did have some hours in the cockpit, Richard Nixon had been elected and changed the strategy to Vietnamization. Meaning we were withdrawing pilots from the war and bringing them home (to absorb scarce flying hours stateside, which is why Bush was eventually able to get an "early out" to attend Harvard Business School).

As for the charges that Bush refused a direct order from his CO, we have pretty convincing evidence to the contrary. Signed 12 days after the alleged disobedience, by the very same Jerry Killian who supposedly was disobeyed. It gives Bush an overall rating of "exceptionally fine".

Finally, in addition to the physical evidence demolishing the legitimacy of the memos, there is a whopper of a chronological blunder: Pilots were, by regulation, required to take an annual flight physical in their birth month. Which, for Bush is July. Not May, as the inept forger has Jerry Killian ordering Bush to do (i.e. ordering Bush to violate regulations).

So, Dan, I'd suggest you prepare two sets of acceptance remarks on the big night.

Land Reform, Seattle Style

The city's mayor bids for a FLUBA Dumbassy (only awarded for remarks so dumb, so embarrassingly foolish, that a normal person--when it dawned on him what he had said--would apply for acceptance at the nearest Trappist monastery) for this attempt to confiscate private property:

Seattle can preserve manufacturing jobs by limiting how many shops and offices can be built on industrial land, Mayor Greg Nickels proposed this morning.

Nickels said at a news conference that his plan will provide job and business opportunities "by ensuring that industrial land is safeguarded for industrial and manufacturing uses by putting strict new limits on the amounts of office and retail space allowed in industrially zoned areas."

The mayor's proposal, which requires City Council approval, could potentially reduce land values across a swath of industrial land south of downtown, in Ballard and in the Interbay area.

....Nickels' recommendations include reducing the maximum amount of office space allowed on land zoned "industrial general" from 100,000 square feet to 10,000 square feet per site.

Retail space would be limited to 10,000 square feet as well, compared to the previous maximum of 75,000 square feet.

Gee, anyone think the idea may have been suggested by a labor union representing manufacturing workers?

At any rate, if you're an 800 lb gorilla, you can relax:

The mayor provided an exemption for Starbucks, whose headquarters is located in the Duwamish industrial area. The coffee company would be allowed to expand its offices, under the mayor's plan.

Pen...mightier....Dumbassy Award

For an Ohio rapper:

Steven Zorn had put the pen gun to his head and clicked before, apparently thinking it was jammed and would not work.

But on the third try, the tiny silver pistol went off as the 22-year-old budding rap artist was drinking to celebrate an impending record deal. He died at a hospital.

...."Steven had a career and his dreams all ahead of him," said Zorn's mother, Lisa McCoy-Horn. She said she wants lawmakers to outlaw pen guns, which are small-caliber, single-shot weapons that resemble pens.

Can't Get No Satisfaction

North Carolina State's Craig Newmark links to an attempt by "leading scholars to identify ten institutions that have adapted, endured and prevailed" in five categories. Concluding that the most noteworthy were:

Academic Institutions — Dartmouth College; Oxford University

Arts and Entertainment — The Modern Olympic Games; the Rolling Stones

Business and Commerce — General Electric; Sony

Government Institutions — American Constitution; International Telecommunication Union

Nonprofit Organizations — The Salvation Army; the Rockefeller Foundation

Prompting another institution that has adapted, endured and prevailed over the years, to announce another FLUBA Dumbassy nomination--in the category; 'Oh...You Mean Real Long Haired Music'--for Booz Allen's leading scholars. Who presumably have not heard of (to pull a few off the tops of our heads):

Academic Institutions: University of Bologna (1158), The Sorbonne (1257)

Arts and Entertainment: The (British) Open (1860), Teatro alla Scala (1778),
The Vienna Philharmonic (1842), Walt Disney (1937)

Business and Commerce: Beretta (1526), Pilsner Urquell (King Wenceslas-1300s), Sumitomo (1630)

Government Institutions: The Vatican, The British Monarchy (1066?)

Nonprofit Organizations: The Roman Catholic Church (380), International Red Cross (1863)

Dumbassy...Thy Name Is REASON

North Carolina State's Craig Newmark alerts the Academy to this year's most puerile political analysis. Lowlights being:

John Perry Barlow... songwriter for the Grateful Dead ...and a Berkman Fellow at Harvard Law School:

....I’m embarrassed for my country that in my entire voting life, there has never been a major-party candidate whom I felt I could vote for.

Be very embarrassed, pal. But not for your country.

Richard Epstein-- professor of law at the University of Chicago:

....As far as I can tell, the debate thus far has borne no relation to the important issues facing the nation...except Vietnam.

....2000 vote: I can’t remember.

Most embarrassing vote: Since I don’t remember who I vote for from one election to the next....

Sure, Dick. And we can't remember when your shot at a Supreme Court nomination disappeared either.


Charles Paul Freund---senior editor at Reason:

2004 vote: I’m still thinking about it.

We wouldn't say that you were, exactly.

Nat Hentoff---nationally syndicated columnist:

....I can’t vote for Bush, who supports Ashcroft’s various "revisions" to the Bill of Rights, since our liberties are what we’re supposed to be fighting for. ...Kerry, I think he’s an empty suit....Nader last time. But he wants to pull the troops out of Iraq, which would lead to a state of nature like Thomas Hobbes had; it would be disastrous. ....

Favorite president: ....FDR was the one who laid out a "second bill of rights," with economic freedoms like a right to decent housing.

You say you read REASON, Nat? You believe we're supposed to be fighting for "our liberties", and your favorite President was the guy who didn't believe that Japanese-American citizens had the right to peacefully reside in their own decent homes that they'd paid for themselves, in their own country.

Camille Paglia--- professor of humanities and media studies:

2004 vote: John Kerry. In the hope that he will restore our alliances and reduce rabid anti-Americanism in this era of terrorism when international good will and cooperation are crucial.

So, your favorite talk show host is no longer Rush Limbaugh? You gave up NFL football?

Steven Pinker---Professor of Psychology at Harvard and author of The Blank Slate:

2004 vote: Kerry. The reason is reason: Bush uses too little of it. In the war on terror, his administration stints on loose-nuke surveillance while confiscating nail clippers and issuing color-coded duct tape advisories.

We at The Academy join Prof. Pinker in being appalled at those in positions of authority who employ reason frivolously.

Michael Shermer---publisher of Skeptic magazine:

2004 vote: John Kerry. .... Most important, he’s a serious cyclist who wears the yellow "LiveStrong" bracelet in support of Lance Armstrong’s cancer foundation and Tour de France win.

Can we supersize your order of Freedom Fries, Mike?

R.U. Sirius---former editor-in-chief of Mondo 2000:

2000 vote: Even though I ran as a write-in candidate myself, I wound up voting for Nader because I thought he gave such rousing and impressive speeches.

That, and you didn't know how to spell Serious.

Cathy Young---columnist for the Boston Globe.

2004 vote: That’s a little private, don’t you think? Whichever way I answer, half my friends won’t talk to me anymore.

We're guessing most normal people would consider that to be a blessing, Cathy.

Hokay, libertarians: You want small government, you say. Put these numbers in your bongs and smoke em:

Taxes as a share of GDP (source: CBO):

1992: 17.5%

1993: 17.6%

1994: 18.1%

1995: 18.5%

1996: 18.9%

1997: 19.3%

1998: 20.0%

1999: 20.0%

2000: 20.9%

2001: 19.8%

2002: 17.9%

2003: 16.5%

Turkey and the Straw

In a debate this week-end in Spokane, Washington, for that state's open Senate seat, Moron in Tennis Shoes [and incumbent Senator] Patty Murray explained how she has worked to "end our dependence on foreign oil" by pointing to this bit of pork:

Helped fund Straw-to-Energy project in Spokane, WA: In the Fiscal Year (FY) 2004 Energy and Water Appropriations Bill, Senator Murray helped secure $750,000 for the Straw-to-Energy initiative. The demonstration project will help utilize new technologies to convert waste, excess grass, or wheat straw into value-added energy.

Peppermint Patty pointing out that if we could just get more taxpayer dollars into the hands of Eastern Washington farmers the energy crisis could be solved.

No, we are not making this up. We heard it with our own ears this morning thanks to KTTH Radio's Dan Sytman. Which means the Academy has a Dumbassy nomination:

In the category....Our Senatorial Team Will Spot You 60 IQ Points and Still Bring Home the Bacon....the nominee is....the Voters of the State of Washington

The Academy Has Another Nominee

We at Fluba have been in a state of breathless anticipation since we read:

Think About What This Means. Think Hard

...WASHINGTON — The Bush administration will delay major assaults on rebel-held cities in Iraq until after U.S. elections in November, say administration officials, mindful that large-scale military offensives could affect the U.S. presidential race.

Although American commanders in Iraq have been buoyed by recent successes in insurgent-held towns such as Samarra and Tall Afar, administration and Pentagon officials say they will not try to retake cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi -- where insurgents' grip is strongest and U.S. military casualties could be the greatest -- until after Americans vote in what is likely to be a close election."

When this election's over, you'll see us move very vigorously," said one senior administration official involved in strategic planning, speaking on condition of anonymity."Once you're past the election, it changes the political ramifications" of a large-scale offensive, the official said. "We're not on hold right now. We're just not as aggressive...

Think about what this means. Think hard. Think very hard.

The generals say we should move now. Moving now gives us the greatest chance of victory at the lowest likely cost. Moving later gives us a lesser chance of victory at a higher cost in terms of our soldiers' lives. But moving later is helpful to the Bush-Cheney campaign.

Impeach George W. Bush. Impeach Richard Cheney. Impeach them now.

Posted by DeLong at October 10, 2004 09:26 PM

Ah, and when we did, Professor, we knew what was about to happen:

Marines Pound Zarqawi Sites in Fallujah

BAGHDAD, Iraq — U.S. warplanes pounded the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah ... on Friday, a day after the city's leaders suspended peace talks and rejected the Iraqi government's demands to turn over terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi....

U.S. troops detained Fallujah's top negotiator in the peace talks, witnesses said. Khaled al-Jumeili, an Islamic cleric, was arrested as he left a mosque after Friday prayers in a village about 10 miles south of Fallujah, they said.

[big snip]

In Friday's operations at Fallujah, two Marine battalions were trying to "disrupt the capabilities of the anti-Iraqi forces," said Maj. Francis Piccoli, spokesman for the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force.

"The operations were designed to target the large terrorist element operating in the area of Fallujah," the U.S. command said. "This element has been planning to use the holy month of Ramadan for attacks."

Targets hit included several key planning centers, a weapons storage facility, two safe houses, a meeting site and several illegal checkpoints used by the al-Zarqawi network, the U.S. military said.

We at the FLUBA knew we had another Dumbassy nominee on the line. In the category, Fish Fish Fish, Hook, Line, Sinker...J Bradford DeLong.

Dan, You Da Man...Big Time!

Recent events cry for the revival of a hoary tradition. The Fly Under the Bridge Academy (FLUBA) is pleased to announce a nominee...(drum roll)...for a FLUBA DUMBASSY AWARD.

This coveted award is not bestowed for mere garden variety hypocrisy, shameless lying, nor usenet quality logic. Only the truly nincompoop, no redeeming value whatsoever, brazen prevarification in the face of every scrap of evidence available, is honored.

Only something Brad DeLong would be honored to see as a comment in Semi-Daily Journal, qualifies. Nominees must have said something so horrid, so inane, that a normal person, upon realizing what he'd done, would refuse to come out of his house for a year, in embarrassment. Many have called, few are chosen.

Without further ado, in the category, Whistling While You Walk Past the Graveyard on the Sidewalks of New York, we honor...Dan Rather...for his tour de force today: "I believe...the documents are authentic."

Sure they are Dan. We believe you.

Which means we have to put aside:

1. Col. Killian's widow, who says her husband couldn't even type, and didn't take notes anyway. Who says her husband respected George W. Bush's aviator skills.

2. Col. Killian's son, who served with his father in the 111th FIS, and says the memos--described as from the Colonel's "personal files"--did not come from them. And says his father would never have been so stupid as to compose, and save, something that could only get him in trouble.

3. The physical evidence: telltale signs of word processing, wrong size paper, non-left alignment of Col. Killian's signature, phony P.O. Box and Zip Code, signatures forged so badly Inspector Clouseau would see them for that, non-standard abbreviations, and the complete absence of official orders corroborating the personal memos.

4. The chronological evidence: Regulations called for a pilot to have an annual physical in the month of his birthday, not two months prior.

Memos from May 4th and May 19th seemingly indicating that Col. Killian was somewhat miffed at Lt. Bush for moving to Alabama in a non-flying status. Yet, on the 26th of that same month, Col. Killian signs a concurrence to a glowing fitness report that praises Bush specifically for his enthusiastic participation in the group's activities. And also mentions his taking the Winton Blount Senate campaign job.

The August 1st memo's reference to ANG's Denver headquarters rejection of Bush's transfer to the 9921st as though it was history, while the actual document is stamped 31 July, 1972, and the Fax machine had yet to be invented.

All the above we ignore. Because, Dan, of who you are. Congratulations, and don't forget to have your tuxedo cleaned for the ceremony.